Labour and the Conservatives: Where are we now?

IT has been an excellent year so far for Jeremy Corbyn. At the beginning of 2017, Corbyn eyed September’s Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) Annual General Meeting to change the party’s internal rules to make it easier for MPs to enter leadership contests. Currently, a candidate requires backing from 15% of the party’s MPs; Corbyn wishes to reduce that to 5%, benefitting his faction of Labour MPs who have struggled to reach the minimum threshold. Corbyn himself only reached the threshold minutes before the deadline. Labour muddled along until April, releasing a string of policy proposals with moderate success. These include raising the number of national holidays in line with other high income countries and a crackdown on late payments from big business to small firms. Could he last until September, Corbyn would prolong his Labour revolution past his stewardship.

At the start of the campaign, think tanks forecast Labour MPs from the moderate and ‘Blairite’ wings – Corbyn’s critics from within the party – to lose proportionately more seats than Corbyn’s faction. Even if the abysmal projections for Labour had come true, the party’s left would have struggled on with greater control, regardless of whether they could survive as a major electoral force. By gaining seats in the face of a widely anticipated death knell, Corbyn remains at the helm, emboldened. More importantly, he has proven to the other factions that the left wing of the party is capable of running the party. Prominent rebels, such as Chuka Umunna, are once again behind Corbyn with potential for inclusion in the shadow cabinet, and Labour stands again as a substantial political force.

Not wishing to overstate Labour’s success, it must be stated there is plenty of work to be done before they can form a functioning government. Yet, momentum is on Corbyn’s side and the dust is yet to settle. His popularity on social media will bode him well as social media gradually becomes a top source of news, perceivably helping him to continue engaging the young. May’s newfound unpopularity, plus Brexit biting into living standards, would leave Labour in a strong position come the next election, likely following the conclusion of negotiations. Having said that, Corbyn himself has shown us that a lot can change in a very short period of time.

Big gambles do not appear to be paying off in UK politics. In a bid to satisfy his party’s sizeable Eurosceptic wing, David Cameron’s referendum on EU membership spectacularly backfired, ultimately costing his job and what currently looks like the country’s future prospects. A second Conservative gamble to make Theresa May more powerful did exactly the opposite, turning a majority into a minority. Losing the majority invited criticism from her MPs over her methods of running government, her policies and her supposed mandate for hard Brexit. The Remainers in her party are empowered, with Philip Hammond putting forward his alternative vision for Brexit Britain.

A hushed battle is going on between Tory MPs: as senior figures declared her time is limited if she cannot save her premiership, May’s supporters are urging unity within the party for stability during negotiations. If a coup were to happen, you can bet it would be swift and efficient, lest a bungled attempt detract from negotiations and risk branding the Conservatives as the party that took the UK out of Europe and made it a failure. What is clear is that given her failures campaigning, her colleagues will not allow her to run again.

Mrs May is now stuck between a rock and a hard place. On one hand, the hardline Brexiteer faction in the Tories, the rightwing media and her support from ex-UKIP voters are pushing for a hard Brexit, citing the 52% of voters backing Leave. On the other hand, May has lost her majority and is getting into bed with the DUP, who back a soft Brexit and seek freedom of movement between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Additionally, the Scottish Conservatives would be foolish to ignore that Scotland voted remain by 62% having only just resurfaced, securing 13 seats – enough to matter as much as the DUP. If May wants to pass any laws during her tenure, ignoring either their Scottish counterparts’ or the DUP’s soft Brexit preferences could see her frustrated with an ineffective government. Both of these are on top of Remainer rebels and the other main parties: Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP, none of which will give May an easy ride. The balancing act between the hard and soft Brexit camps will give the PM quite the headache.

This year’s reversal of fortunes has seen a return to two-party politics. As the most important negotiations of a generation will require a strong opposition to hold the government to account, it’s just in time too.

On Britain’s Snap Election: Theresa’s Troubles

TWO months ago, the notion Theresa May could lose her majority was laughable. On Friday morning, 2,227 votes were all that blocked a so-called Progressive Alliance forming with a Labour government at the helm. Despite Labour failing to secure the most seats, Theresa’s most salient achievement was that Jeremy Corbyn emerged perhaps the strongest leader in UK politics, using his momentum to call for her resignation and thus framing her as a failure in the eyes of the country – a 10th of June Survation survey has 49% think she should resign vs only 38% she should not.

There will be more fallout from this election than any for a generation, with severe ramifications and deep rethinking needed for all major players. The mountain supporting May as Conservative Leader is suddenly now thin ice, and whilst Brexit negotiations and the genuine need for a clear, coherent UK negotiating position could keep the wolves at bay, prominent Tories are unlikely to risk further haemorrhaging at the next election. Cough, Boris, cough. The Conservatives find themselves relying on the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), a socially right-wing Northern Irish party with whom they share few similar stances, to cobble together a coalition. I will focus on the fallout in other blog posts, but for now: what went wrong for the Tories?

The Conservatives called the election and ran on the premise of ‘strong and stable leadership’, a phrase I wish to purge from memory, and strengthening the UK’s negotiating hand (oops). Aside from their pro-Brexit position, little else stood out as positively unique to this Conservative manifesto. The usual promises of reduced net immigration, a relatively unsubstantial increase in the NHS budget (£8bn vs Labour’s £32bn), meeting defence spending commitments and cherishing Trident, and slashing corporation tax to attract and retain big business were all thrown in.

However, their notorious attempt at policy innovation, branded the ‘Dementia Tax’ whereby the elderly would pay for social care using the value of their home, provoked heavy backlash and a series of U-turns. Whilst this was a genuine attempt to tackle the growing burden of an ageing population on social care, the reform was ill thought-out and poked holes in the strong and stable guise. Labour, having promised extra funding for social care, seized the opportunity to smear them as weak and wobbly. Further adding to the anger was the revelation that Nick Timothy, one of the recently resigned duo of May’s closest advisors, added the policy to the manifesto only the night before it was released, without Cabinet ministers’ approval. Were the Tories’ strength not Brexit, backed overwhelmingly by the over 65s, this policy could have hurt their support among a core voter base.

It’s clear now that two key factors in the failure of the Tories’ gambit was that they called the election on the thinly-veiled ambition of sweeping away a seemingly weak opposition in order to push through their negotiation aims – a hard Brexit.

Glaringly obvious in the neon illumination of hindsight, arrogance has been hailed another detrimental feature of the campaign. Calling the election on the presumption that May would receive their votes then refusing to debate the other leaders and engage with citizens – as is a staple component of the democratic process – can and should be labelled nothing but disdain for voters. Such alienation could only have played well for Corbyn, who has long sought for a “new, gentler kind of politics” to bring onboard previously disillusioned voter segments.

Midway through the campaign, journalists reported instances where the crowds of ‘ordinary voters’ Theresa faced as she toured the country were Conservative party activists, or where activists had held the microphone for reporters with the purpose of preventing them from asking unscripted questions. This played out well for Corbyn, who appeared comfortable and enthusiastic with the general public, most visably relaxed during the live audience interviews rounding off the campaign. As Corbyn grew into the campaign, May appeared scared to face the public for fear of losing her lead.

As found by FiveThirtyEight, a polling aggregator, the ‘Shy Tory’ effect is not on average present when the Tories already lead the polls. There is however, a kickback against the ‘conventional wisdom’, suggesting the public don’t like being told how they’re going to vote. Calling the election based on this conventional wisdom with this effect present, it seems, was not a good idea. The clarity of this is perhaps the biggest pain in her post-election headache as Corbyn piles on the pressure and surpasses her in the polls. Another surprise to the polls is the Green Party’s kamikaze: in efforts to prevent a Conservative victory, their candidates stood down in 38 seats as not to split the progressive vote, helping Labour and the Lib Dems to take nine seats from the Conservatives.

By making the campaign about Brexit, voters were also given the opportunity to air their discontent with the government’s negotiating aims and methods. Whilst many Remain voters have come to terms with Britain leaving the EU, as hinted by the demise of the Lib Dems and their anti-Brexit campaign, Mrs May opting for the sharpest possible exit from the EU with prominent members of her party having a history of antagonising the ‘Brussels Bureaucrats’, namely Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, a divisive figure since the Referendum, and Michael Howard, appearing to threaten war with Spain over Gibraltar. Meanwhile, having accepted the referendum result, Corbyn’s seemingly vague soft Brexit stance with a non-confrontational tone has created an additional arena for a protest vote. The hard stance did help pick up UKIP voters, but cost them a 2% on average in Remain voting areas. Comparatively, Labour picked up 12% in Remain areas.

Interlinked with Remain voters is the youth vote. Young voters, aged 20-24 voted 62% Labour vs 22% Conservative. A prominent explanation for this is that Labour ‘bribed’ the young with the last minute policy of cancelling university tuition fees for students. Of course, which current or prospective student would not opt to do away with £27,000 debt plus interest repayments for the standard three year course? Not to mention that older generations could get by without university education with degrees now becoming increasingly in demand. But it is overly simplistic to suggest tuition fees are the only policy that appealed to the young. Seniors have long benefitted from real rises in house prices, whilst the young have found it increasingly harder to acquire footing on the property ladder. The Labour pledge to build one million new homes not only seeks to subdue a housing crisis, it constitutes a wider economic programme of investment in public services, national infrastructure and skills. In the eyes of the young, the Conservative campaign centred on Brexit did not match up to Labour’s investment for the future.

Ironically, shining a spotlight on the widely perceived weak leader in Mr Corbyn finally gave him the opportunity to show off his strength as a leader: campaigning. As he relaxed and seemed to enjoy himself, May’s campaigning inadequacies – avoiding the common citizen’s scrutiny and parroting catchphrases – handed him rapid gains from a rock bottom starting point. A large manifesto reversal haunted the middle of her campaign and unpopularity with the younger population contributed to her opposition’s unexpected boost.